By Lin J.Y.
In June 2008, Justin Yifu Lin used to be appointed leader Economist of the realm financial institution, correct sooner than the eruption of the worst worldwide monetary and financial concern because the nice melancholy. Drawing on event from his privileged place, Lin deals exact reflections at the reason for the trouble, why it used to be so critical and frequent, and its most likely evolution. Arguing that traditional theories offer insufficient options, he proposes new tasks for attaining international balance and heading off the recurrence of comparable crises sooner or later. He means that the quandary and the worldwide imbalances either originated with the surplus liquidity created by way of US monetary deregulation and unfastened financial coverage, and recommends the construction of a world Marshall Plan and a brand new supranational worldwide reserve forex. This thought-provoking publication will attract lecturers, graduate scholars, coverage makers, and someone attracted to the worldwide financial system
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Extra resources for Against the Consensus: Reflections on the Great Recession
1 Business and ﬁnancial deregulation and innovative ﬁnancial instruments were credited with creating a more ﬂexible and adaptable economic system, enabling the Great Moderation. Financial assets were considered less risky than beforehand, prompting more ﬁnancial intermediation, which fueled economic growth and spurred ﬁnancial innovation, especially through hedge funds. Business cycles were less volatile because of abundant global liquidity – partly reﬂecting surplus savings in some emerging market economies – giving the false sense that 1 The term “Great Moderation” was coined by James Stock and Mark Watson (2002).
Only if we understand the roots of the crisis and its likely evolution can we design an appropriate policy response to prevent a recurrence. 1 The world economy and the 2008–9 crisis The world economy grew rapidly between 2000 and 2008. Unemployment and poverty declined as advanced, emerging, and developing economies alike recorded high growth rates. Strong demand for raw materials from fast-growing developing and emerging market economies pushed up commodity prices, to the beneﬁt of resource-rich countries.
40 In regressions with real housing price appreciation as the independent variable and the accumulated balance of trade as the dependent variable, the study found that movements in residential home prices explained about half the variation in accumulated current account deﬁcits in a sample of eighteen Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries plus China. While acknowledging that the regressions cannot identify causality, the authors point to preliminary evidence that causality runs from asset bubbles to current account deﬁcits, based on the ﬁnding that the consumption boom was ﬁnanced largely by real estate loans.
Against the Consensus: Reflections on the Great Recession by Lin J.Y.